Tom and Dick blast out of the gate at +50.  Rand and Frank, well, not so much as blast as a trip.  Will the change in pick order help or hurt.  Last week Frank took the consensus good pick - Packers +1 - and it earned him last place and the first pick this week.  Will Frank protect the Savants from another obvious pick gone bad this week?  Who will get the Super Bowl bound Cowboys this weekend?  Will Cassidy break the most emails sent within a 24-hour period this week?  Of course, it is his own record that he’ll be trying to break.  Can Rand regain some momentum, or is he still off his game after losing a big lead in the regular season?  Stay tuned. 

The Guest Picker Playoff Challenge:  What an opening weekend.  Greg and Doug were fast out of the gate - Marcia and Scott not so much - but in the one important stat, they were faster than Don who had both his picks miss the mark last week.  As the competition is down to just 4, will the strategy change?  Can Doug stay on the end of year roll he has been on - this will be his 5th straight week to make picks.  Will Scott’s haste to go on vacation be his undoing?  Can Greg avoid an early exit this week to keep the top seed in the running?  What does Marcia have in store to separate herself from the pack this weekend?  This week’s tiebreaker:  the combined total interceptions for Brett Farve and Tony Romo.  Good luck.

Playoffs
Dick  +50 +50 = +100
Tom  +50 +30 = +80
Rand  -30 -50 = -80
The Goracle -50 -50 = -100

This Week’s Guest Pickers

Greg Hobbs +10, Doug Howe -10, Scott Holtzman -10, and Marcia Mayes -10  

This week’s picks
Dick: $50 on Dallas/Minnie Under 45.5. Dick has fallen in love with the over/unders.  He still on for 50, but what has happened to him in the playoffs?  He claims it is because he can’t get his Cows for 50.  Maybe. Note that is he on his own with this week’s pick (not following one of Greg’s picks) +++ Apparently Dick knows when the Cow offense decides to stay home. 

 Tom:  $20 on Indy -6.5.  Tom thinks Peyton and his receivers will be a better matchup against the suddenly defensive Ravens. +++ Pretty easy pick here.
          $10 on SD/Jets Under 42. Tom enters the over/under world hoping that the Jets try to take the air out of the ball. +++ I suppose it is time to acknowledge that the Jet defense is for real.   
          $10 on Arizona +7. Tom figures he might as well join the Kurt Warner bandwagon. XXX Maybe you should pick against Kurt Warner in the playoffs.
          $10 on Indy/Balt Under 44. Tom covers the under just in case that Raven defense is for real. +++ Another easy under game.  
           
        Rand: $50 on Dallas +3.  Rand gets the guaranteed win this week with the Super Bowl bound Cowboys.  They can’t be beat by Brett and Co., can they? XXX Rand snatches defeat by taking another of the consensus good picks of the weekend.  
                   
         Frank: $50 on San Diego -7.  Frank takes another well-liked pick in this one.  Not quite as good as last week’s, but will Frank’s backing sink the Norvells this week? XXX The rumor is true - Frank has been contacted by officials from each of the remaining teams begging him not to pick them this week.
             
This Week’s Guest Prognosticators - Greg Hobbs, Doug Howe, Marcia Mayes, and Scott Holtzman

Greg:  $30 on NYJ/San Diego Under 42.  Greg likes low scoring games this weekend.  Will the Jet defense keep up their stellar play, or have they achieved all goals and headed for their off-season rest? +++ Easy win on the under with the Jets’ D  
          $20 on New Orleans/Arizona Under 57. Greg thinks Vegas is licking their chops for an easy win on the under.  Or, will one team be able to hit this crazy number themselves? XXX Although they quit scoring early in this one, almost hitting the number at half time doomed this pick. 
           Farve/Romo INTs: 1

Doug:  $30 on Dallas +3.  Doug stays a true believer staying with the Cows for the second straight week. XXX Doug should have listened to Frank - you can’t trust the Cows.   
          $20 on Indy -6.5. Doug makes this pick even after hearing Tom pick the Colts.  Will last week’s joint success carry over for another week?  +++ Doug should keep picking with Tom - it is working.
           Favre/Romo INTs: 2

       Marcia: $30 on San Diego -7.  Marcia doesn’t back down from this pick even after hearing Frank load up on it.  A home team against a ‘just happy to still be in it’ eastern time zone team playing a really good team - it should be an easy win.  XXX Even after hearing Frank take this pick, Marcia goes down in flames with him.
          $20 on Arizona/NO Over 57. Marcia goes opposite Greg on this one.  Interesting. +++ This one made it over even though the teams mailed in the 2nd half. 
                    Favre/Romo INTs: 2

       Scott: $20 on Jets +7.  Scott likes the AFC dogs this week.  Can the Jets keep up with the Chargers?  +++ Scott knows his Jets.
          $20 on Baltimore +6.5. Scott goes opposite Doug on this one.  But, are the dogs out of class this weekend?  XXX The Ravens were not quite ready for another road game.
          $10 on Arizona/NO Under 57. Scott and Greg share the view that this won’t be a shootout like last week’s Cardinals’ game.  We’ll see. XXX Oops, not an under with that Cardinal defense involved.  
          Favre/Romo INTs: 2         

          Note: The Sports Savants do not gamble with real money and do not endorse, recommend or promote doing so. The dollar figures above are in “pretend” money, as a way of measuring our success in the game. Not only is gambling illegal in many jurisdictions, it is also pretty dumb. In the end, the house always wins. That’s why the house has gold plated ceilings, dancing girls, magic shows and enormous fountains out front.

*Unlike last year, the guests will compete against each other.  The winner between the guest pickers each week will continue to pick the next week.  If they win that week, they keep going.  There is one asterisk to that sentence - we are attorneys you know - if a guest picker buys lunch for the Savants at the regular pick’em lunch, they will continue to the next week whether they beat the new guest picker or not.

** Perhaps the Savants have been spending a bit too much time concerning themselves with country club law, private clubs and resorts law, membership law, and related hospitality law matters.

WEEK 6 PICKS - PLUS FINAL RESULTS

Greg Hobbs continues to shine as he won the GP competition last week - and on an even more positive note, Greg finished in the black numbers for the win.  This week Greg takes on Rudy Anderson, CEO of The Club at Cordillera in Edwards, Colorado.  Rudy hails from the Big Apple area, so he may be spread a little thin this weekend rooting for the Yankees and the Giants (and Jets).

Overall, Dick is trying to runaway and hide from the rest of the Savants.  Of course, we have seen this before.  Can Dick build a big enough lead to prevent a late season collapse? We’re talking about Dick and his picks against the line, not his beloved Cows — although it may be true of the Cows as well.  Rand’s sideways week, but at least positive sideways week, has him holding a steady 2nd place.  Tom’s plus 40 week puts him within striking distance of The Goreacle.  The Goreacle who is still smarting from the 49ers getting shellacked last weekend appears to have lost his early season mojo.  Will Frank pass Tom for last this week, will the Cassidy magic continue?  Stay tuned.

Week 5 Standings
Dick           +150 +50 = +200
Tom           -40 -10 = -50
Rand         +70 +30 = +100
The Goreacle -10 -50 = -60

This Week’s Guest Picker’s Results

Greg Hobbs  +50 versus Rudy Anderson -30

This week’s picks
Dick: $30 on Denver +3.5 Dick rides last week winning pick into this week.  Of course the pundits seem convinced that since Denver is not going to go undefeated, this is their week to lose.  Dick realizes that Norv’s Chargers just don’t look very good. +++Denver turns it on in the 2nd half to put the Chargers out of their misery.  When do the playoffs begin for the Broncos?
           $20 on New England -9.5. Once again Dick takes the easy pick.  How can the no-defensive back lead Titans stay within 10 of the Pats?  Dick says he and Deon can rollout of bed and suit up this Sunday for the Titans’ secondary if needed. +++ Let’s see - 59-0, I think that covers the 9 1/2.  Titans on their way to 0-16.

Tom:   $10 Pitts/Cle Under 38.  Tom thinks Derek Anderson’s 2 for 17 won’t cut it against the Steelers this week.  So, can the Steelers stay below 30? XXX Close, but not a winner  
           $20 on Green Bay -13.5.  Expecting the bye week to cure all ills, Tom lays the points against the wounded Lions. +++ The Pack is Back - at least against the Lions. 
          $10 on Pittsburg -14. Tom keeps the faith with the big favorites after last week’s stellar showing on the big spread games.  Cleveland is bad, so can Steelers take care of business or will they play to their competition? XXX Big Ben shows he doesn’t like the cover, but he does like to win.
            $10 on Philly -14.  If last week was a preseason game against the TBuc’s, then what is this week’s game against the Raiders?  A JV game? XXX Should an additional amount be deducted for picking a 14-point favorite who managed to lose the woeful Rahdahs?

Rand: $20 on Wash/KC Under 37.  Rand takes the Redskin under from Tom this week.  This should be a lock unless the offenses start giving up defensive touchdowns. +++ Even Jim Zorn knows his offense stinks.
        $20 on Baltimore + 3.  Rand thinks the better team - the Ravens - will take care against Farve and Company this week.  But, does Adrian Peterson have a say in that? +++ Minnie blows a 17-point 4th Qtr lead so Brett can show off his greatness with the final drive victory - but not a cover.
        $10 on StLouis/Jacksonville Under 42.5.  The table is set for this one:  the Rams average less than 7 a game and Jack managed a big goose egg last week, money in the bank, right? XXX it took overtime for them to get the over, but an over it is.

         Frank: $50 on Cincinnati - 5.  Frank spots the beauty at the ball, and it is none other than the loveable Bengals.  Frank is buying into the Cardiac Cats in a big way.  Should we let him in on a secret that he just bet the load on a team usually referred to as the Bungals? XXX A couple of wins doesn’t cause a tiger to change its stripes - or something like that.  The Goreacle nose dive continues.
             
                This Week’s Guest Prognosticators - Rudy Anderson and Greg Hobbs

Rudy:  $10 on NY Football Giants +3.  The best team in football getting 3 points, you gotta be kidding. XXX Not with a defensive secondary like that.   
            $10 on NO/NYG Under 47.5. Rudy guarantees Osi, Justin and company will introduce themselves often to Mr. Brees. XXX OK, we can give Rudy for NO under 47.5 - but that pick is still a loser. 
           $10 on Oakland +14. Rudy thinks this is the week for the pig to wake up and start its march to a 4 and 12 season. +++ Not only a cover, but a win.  Amazing pick.  
            $10 on NY Jets -9.5. Rudy sees the Jets coming back from last week’s wildcat loss with a smack down of the woeful Bills.  XXX A loss to the Bills - OUCH.
           $10 on Detroit +13.5. Rudy shows the Lions some love.  Not a vote of confidence in their ability to win, but maybe a garbage time TD to cover is in the offing. XXX Lesson to be learned - only pick one pig a week - and Oakland was the correct pig.

Greg:  $20 on Buffalo +10.  Greg takes on Rudy on this one - can TO lead his mates to stay close to the Rex Ryan’s Jets? +++ Easy pickings there - an outright win for the 10 point dogs. 
          $20 on Wash/KC Under 37. Greg matches Rand with this gimme under. +++ the gimme was just that - next week’s Redskin under:  28.
           $10 on KC +6.5. Greg thinks that the overtime loss to the Cows qualifies the Chiefs to take down the offensively challenged Skins.  His punishment for making 2 bets on the Washington game:  he has to watch it. +++ Greg completes the perfect week by betting against the ’Skins.
           

Note: The Sports Savants do not gamble with real money and do not endorse, recommend or promote doing so. The dollar figures above are in “pretend” money, as a way of measuring our success in the game. Not only is gambling illegal in many jurisdictions, it is also pretty dumb. In the end, the house always wins. That’s why the house has gold plated ceilings, dancing girls, magic shows and enormous fountains out front.

*Unlike last year, the guests will compete against each other.  The winner between the guest pickers each week will continue to pick the next week.  If they win that week, they keep going.  There is one asterisk to that sentence - we are attorneys you know - if a guest picker buys lunch for the Savants at the regular pick’em lunch, they will continue to the next week whether they beat the new guest picker or not.

** With the domination by Dick and Rand solid start, maybe the Savants don’t need to limit themselves to country club law, private clubs and resorts law, membership law, and related hospitality law matters.

Last Week’s Guest Picker’s Results

Greg Hobbs +10 over Dave Largent -10

If you are a fan of the Steelers or Cardinals, you have to be feeling pretty good right about now. After all, you have what every team spends the season trying to get, a conference championship game at home.  Home field advantage has historically been crucial in the playoffs, with home teams winning 63% of the time in the championship games, and nearly 68% in the playoffs overall. Why shouldn’t you be feeling good?

Well, before you get too comfortable there are two things you ought to know:

(1) One home team is probably going down this weekend. The NFL is in the midst of a curious but persistent streak, one that has been hardly noticed by most fans. For ten consecutive years now, one of the two road teams has won in the conference championship round. Since 1998, every Super Bowl has pitted a home winner against a road winner. It started with Atlanta’s shocking road win over the 15-1 1998 Vikings, and has continued every year since. In fact, since the inception of the Super Bowl in 1966, the championship round has seen one home winner and one road winner 25 times in 42 years-compared to just 14 years in which both home teams advanced. Even before the 10-year streak began in ‘98, the home-road scenario was slightly more common, historically, than both home teams winning.

This may be no more than a coincidence, and might mean nothing on Sunday. However, the numbers suggest a trend, especially since the success of road teams in the championship games coincides with a recent increase in overall success by road teams in the playoffs. Which leads to the second thing you need to know….

(2) Home field advantage just ain’t what it used to be. Starting in 2003, home team playoff success has been on a steady decline. Home teams are just 31-27 overall in the playoffs between 2003 and 2008, a .534 clip. In 2005, for the first time in NFL history, home teams were under .500 in the playoffs (4-6), and again this year-so far-home teams are 3-5. Since the start of the 2005 playoffs, home teams are exactly 19-19 in 38 games. That’s four solid years of home field making little or no difference at all.

To see how stark the dropoff has been, consider that from 1966 through 2002, home teams won 209 times in 299 tries, or just over 70% of the time. So what gives? Is the declining home success rate this decade just a fluke? Or is there something else going on?

First, let’s break down that 70% success rate into some smaller groups. From 1966 to 1973, the NFL did not determine home field based on best record, or seeding. Home sites were determined on a rotation basis between the divisions, meaning that a team who had a much better season than its opponent could nonetheless find itself on the road in the playoffs. The most famous case in point was in 1972, when the perfect 14-0 Dolphins had to play AT Pittsburgh in the AFC championship game.

During this period, home teams were 26-15 (.634); that’s good, but well below the historical norms that would be set between 1974 and 2002 (183-75, .709). And in the championship games between ‘66 and ‘73, the home team was just 9-7 (.563). BUT….the team with the better record in these early playoff games went 30-11 (.732), and 13-3 in the championship game (.813). In other words, playing at home wasn’t nearly as important as being the stronger team. Again, case in point: Miami won that ‘72 championship game in Pittsburgh.

From ‘74 to 2002, the home team and the better team were, in most cases, the same team. While the playoff format changed a couple of times through these years (expanding first to 5, then 6 teams), the regular season format was constant, with three divisions of 5 or 6 teams in each conference. The playoffs were primarily contests between weaker wild card teams, on the road against stronger, better division champs. It’s not clear if the home teams had such an advantage during this time because they were at home, or because they were clearly better. Most likely, the combination of the two was overwhelming. Twelve of the fourteen seasons in which both home teams won the conference championship occurred during this timeframe.

Then in 2002, the NFL realigned to four divisions of four teams apiece, in each conference. The mathematical fact is that, when there are more divisions, each with fewer teams, the chances of getting one (or more) weak division winners increases significantly. At the same time, with fewer playoff spots available for wild cards, only the strongest wild card teams make it. The result has been a steady stream of strong wild card teams playing on the road against weak division winners, which has added a couple of extra wins for the road teams each year. Add to that the increased parity of the salary cap era, when the difference between a 13-3 and 11-5 might be as much luck as skill and, voila, we now have playoff games where the road team is just as likely as not to be the better of the two teams.

 So, going back to the future, the 2003-2008 era is most similar to the 1966-1973 era, when the best teams didn’t necessarily play at home. Now, as then, it’s good to be home, but it’s better to be better.

With this in mind, if you want to know who will probably win the Pittsburgh-Baltimore game on Sunday (the second game), just wait and see who wins the first one. If it’s the Eagles, then history suggests we’ll have an all-Pennsylvania Super Bowl. If it’s Arizona, then look out Steelers, you could be the 11^th straight home team to go down in the conference finals.