Dick maintains his torrid pace, and Tom stays close behind after the first 2 weeks of the playoffs.  Can they keep up the pace?  Rumor has it that Dick has some negative karma hanging over him this week (it was shown to the other Savants when the lunch place he chose didn’t have what he ordered). Can Tom keep the momentum going on a week when the picks seem pretty tough?  And, what about Rand and Frank who each missed a 50 last week.  Rand takes the strategy to go opposite Tom and Dick in hopes of catching up.  Frank places his faith in Brett Favre.  Will he get jilted, or will Brett makes amends for the Packer playoff bust 2 years ago?  Lots to watch this weekend as the season may be down to a 2 person contest unless the leaders fall.  

The Guest Picker Playoff Challenge:  Greg Hobbs handled his opponents last week by having the only positive result.  The other 3 - well, they either tied for second or tied for last depending upon how full or empty your glass is.  OK, OK, OK - so the tiebreaker last week wasn’t so good for breaking ties as all 3 choose the same number of interceptions by Farve and Romo.  It was good for entertainment value. So, we decided that all 3 advance this weekend with a twist.  2 GPs will hit the street this week.  The top 2 will advance to the Super Bowl.  Remember the slate is wiped clean each week - so no carryover results for the GPs. What is this week’s tiebreaker?  Reggie Bush All Purpose Yards (return yardage, rushing, receiving).  Greg noted that Reggie has one good game and he suddenly becomes important enough to be in the tiebreaker.  Well - it worked as evidenced by yardage predications starting with a low of 92 and going all the way up to 187.  Good luck and enjoy the games - we’ll see who our 2 survivors are.

Playoffs
Dick  +100 -50  = +50
Tom  +80 +10 = +90
Rand  -80 +30 = -50
The Goracle -100 +50 = -50

This Week’s Guest Pickers

Greg Hobbs, Doug Howe, Scott Holtzman, and Marcia Mayes  

This week’s picks
Dick: $50 on Indy/New York Jets Under 39. Dick’s love for the over/unders reaches new heights with his 3rd straight total points pick.  Unfortunately, he doesn haven’t the Cow defense to rely upon this weekend.  In case you missed it - the Cows did exit the playoffs last weekend, but Coach Puffalumps remains to push the Cows to just short of the prize again next year.  XXX This one was way over after the Jets found a way to participate in the scoring. Cassidy’s perfect post-season ends. 

 Tom:  $30 on Indy -7.5.  Tom stays with Indy who did him right last weekend.  They should win, but will they cover?  Let’s hope that Sanchez needs to throw. +++ Peyton comes through again this week.
          $10 on New Orleans -3.5. Tom decides to go opposite Frank - why?  Frank is ice cold, so why not? XXX Uh Oh, does this mean Frank is back?    
          $10 on New Orleans/Minnie Under 53. This was the last remaining pick open under our picking rules - so Tom put $10 on it for good measure.  Without the Cardinal defense in the building, there is a slim chance this will stay under. XXX It was under through the end of the 3rd quarter.  
           
        Rand: $30 on Indy/NY Jets Over 39.  Rand goes opposite Dick on this one.  Will he make a big leap up the standings?  We’ll see. +++ Rand scores big with this one.   
          $10 on New York Jets +7.5. Rand goes with the Jets to go opposite Tom on this pick.  Note:  you may start noticing a trend of following the great Greg Hobbs’ picks.  Did he know them in advance?  Yes. XXX The Jets run was good - but Indy was too much.    
          $10 on New Orleans/Minnie Over 53. Even though he denies the coincidence of matching The Hobbery’s picks, Rand closes out his picks with this matching one as well.  Can he close the gap wtih Dick and Tom with all these opposite picks?  +++ Rand is back in the game with a good weekend. 
 
                   
         Frank: $50 on Minnesota +3.5.  Frank’s cold streak extended for another week.  Can Brett get him back on the right side with this one?  Going against the possible team of destiny - be careful.  +++ Frank’s bold move on Brett and Co. pays off.
             
This Week’s Guest Prognosticators - Greg Hobbs +10, Doug Howe +50, Marcia Mayes +50, and Scott Holtzman -50

Greg:  $10 on NYJ/Indy Over 39.  Greg goes against Dick with this one.  Is Cassidy worried?  Based upon Greg’s results, he should be. +++ Another excellent pick by the Hobbery.   
          $20 on New Orleans/Minnie Over 53. Greg likes the offenses in this one.  A good pick if both teams show up.  +++ Easy win with both offenses controlling the game. 
          $20 on New York Jets +7.5. Greg believes in Buddy’s son - and maybe the whole Jet story line.  XXX A little too much faith in Buddy’s son.
           Reggie Bush A/P Yards: 149

Doug:  $30 on Indy -7.5.  Doug stays with Indy again this week.  Can Tom and Doug be right on a same pick 3 straight weeks?   +++ Doug knows to stay on the right side of a Peyton Manning pick. 
          $20 on Minnesota +3.5. Doug likes Brett and Co. this weekend.  The Viking defense was really good last weekend - will they be this weekend?  And, did he really mean to make the same pick as Frank and go against Tom? +++ Doug tops off a perfect week with this pick.  Believe in Brett - at least to cover.
           Reggie Bush A/P Yards: 92

       Marcia: $40 on New Orleans/Minnie Over 53.  Marcia almost goes 50 on this pick.  What about these teams’ D? +++ Marcia knows offense, and it pays off.
          $10 on Indy -7.5. Marcia goes with Peyton and Co. against the upstart Jets.  This should be a good pick for GP separation. +++ Marcia’s hedge pick comes through as well - picking with Peyton helped.  
                    Reggie Bush A/P Yards: 187

       Scott: $20 on NY Jets +7.5.  Scott stays with his Jets after they reward him last week against the Chargers. XXX Scott had left an earlier message to pick Indy - the last second change dooms his picking season.
          $20 on New Orleans -3.5. Scott goes opposite Doug on this one.  Scott is buying into the Saints’ destiny. XXX another last second change sinks Scott again.  
          $10 on Minnie/NO Under 53. Scott goes opposite Greg on this one.  There should be some good separation this week.   XXX If you’re going to go out - go out in style.
          Reggie Bush A/P Yards: 126         

          Note: The Sports Savants do not gamble with real money and do not endorse, recommend or promote doing so. The dollar figures above are in “pretend” money, as a way of measuring our success in the game. Not only is gambling illegal in many jurisdictions, it is also pretty dumb. In the end, the house always wins. That’s why the house has gold plated ceilings, dancing girls, magic shows and enormous fountains out front.

*Unlike last year, the guests will compete against each other.  The winner between the guest pickers each week will continue to pick the next week.  If they win that week, they keep going.  There is one asterisk to that sentence - we are attorneys you know - if a guest picker buys lunch for the Savants at the regular pick’em lunch, they will continue to the next week whether they beat the new guest picker or not.

** Perhaps the Savants have been spending a bit too much time concerning themselves with country club law, private clubs and resorts law, membership law, and related hospitality law matters.

GWINNETT, Ga. (AP) — The entire Buffalo Bills organization was a no-show today at the first 2009 workout held by WR Terrell Owens at his home in suburban Atlanta. Although the Bills’ participation in the workout was technically “voluntary,” T.O. was clearly disappointed.

“I think it’s important that they make the effort to show they’re ready to be a part of what I’m doing,” said Owens, adding that he was hopeful some Buffalo players and coaches would start filing in later this week. “I’m committed and ready to go; the gatorade is on ice in the backyard and Madden ‘09 is loaded in the Xbox. I’m just looking forward to the rest of the team getting in here so that it can start learning my offense.”

Signed to a 1-year, $6.5m contract two weeks ago, Owens dismissed any notion that he has had “locker room” issues in his previous stops. “If you go back and look, you’ll find that I’ve always maintained that I am an excellent teammate. Really, throughout my whole career, I don’t think I’ve had one bad thing to say about myself.”  

T.O. was somewhat dubious of the reasons he was given for the Bills skipping out on his first workout session.  “Other commitments, they said….something about ‘mini camps’ and ‘OTAs’ or some such. I don’t know, that sounds made up to me. ‘Mini camp’…what the heck is that?” Still, the controversial wideout remained optimistic. “It’s early,” he said, “they still have plenty of time to prove themselves to me.”

Also, at the conclusion of his session with reporters, Owens seemed to be caught off guard when asked how he would adjust to playing in the cold and snow of upstate New York, responding “Umm…play where in the what, now?”

-RH

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) — Scouts gathered at this week’s NFL scouting combine have been disappointed by some of the 40-yard dash times turned in by big names such as Ohio State’s Chris Wells and Florida’s Percy Harvin. However, one name has been turning heads with a dazzling 40 time of 4.28 seconds.

Fourteen year old Brianna Sydney of Benjamin Harrison Middle School turned in the fastest time of any runner at this year’s combine, causing several teams to immediately move her onto their radar screens. “The game today is about speed,” said Titans’ general manager Mike Reinfeldt, “and this girl has it.” Reinfeldt hit a home run in last year’s draft by taking unheralded RB Chris Johnson out of East Carolina, who ran a 4.24 in the 40. “We don’t care where they played their college ball….or IF they played college ball…we’re just looking for someone who can break a stopwatch.”

Colts’ GM Bill Polian agreed. “Sure we could waste time looking at things like ‘yards gained’ or ‘touchdowns scored’ or ‘championships won’ ,” said Polian, while making annoying “air quotes” with his fingers. “Or we can just cut through that nonsense and take the fastest runner here. Because frankly, if I draft the fastest runner here, I just don’t think I can be blamed for that if it doesn’t work out.”

Miami’s Bill Parcells said that uncertainty about Sydney’s position and her complete lack of any football experience are of little concern. ”This is a talent acquisition business,” claimed Parcells, “and in the NFL, speed is talent. I can teach her to play football, but you can’t teach speed.”  

The 5′2″, 110 pound Sydney, who was simply visiting the combine as a spectator when she decided to run “on a dare,” seemed to enjoy the attention. “I mean, I think it’s like really cool and everything, and everyone has been, like SOOO nice to me. I hope I get to play for the Colts, it’d be crackalactic if me and Peyton Manning were BFFs.”

Polian rebuffed any suggestion by reporters that a prepubescent female can’t make it in the rigorous world of the NFL, citing the tremendous success already enjoyed by Tom Brady.

-RH

HATTIESBURG, Miss. (AP) — In keeping with tradition, NFL Pro Bowl week has again been followed this year by Bret Favre retirement week. The future Hall of Fame quarterback released a statement on Tuesday announcing his retirement from professional football.

Reached at his home in Mississippi, Favre was upbeat. “I feel good about this year’s retirement,” he commented. “Sure, there are some things I might have done differently. But I can learn from those mistakes and make sure next year’s retirement is the best ever. This one is already a huge improvement over last season.”

For Favre, it all comes down to doing what he loves. While sipping a beer on his deck, Favre said “every year I think ‘maybe this is the year I’m finally going to do it…just keep playing and give up retirement once and for all.’ But then, you know how it is, December rolls around, and then January, and I just get that itch. The  parties, the glowing tributes, the heartfelt farewells–it’s an unbelievable rush. It’s hard to give that up. After awhile, it’s something that is just in your blood.”

When asked if he will return to play in the NFL this Fall, Favre is hesitant. “Well look,” he said, “It’s too early to make any decisions about that. We’ve got a whole summer of offseason programs and mini-camps for other players to go to, and I don’t see any reason to rush into a decision until after those are over.” Then he added, with a wink, “but I am already working on some really cool ideas for next year’s retirement party.”

“The bottom line is, I feel good, I feel like I could retire another 4, maybe 5 times.” Here’s hoping that he’s true to those words. The NFL in February just wouldn’t be the same without old #4 hangin’ ‘em up.

-RH

I want it. You want it. The new Commander-in-Chief wants it. Given his ties to Austin, the old Commmander-in-Chief probably wants it too.

It’s a college football playoff system: the Holy Grail of sports. Elusive, mystical, and believed to have great powers of healing. Desperately, passionately sought by thousands upon thousands, but never attained.

The benefits of a playoff have been stated many times in other places, and there is no need to recount them here. Instead, let’s focus on these two questions: (1) Why doesn’t it happen?, and (2) If it did happen, what should it look like?

(1) Why not?

College football playoffs may have become a Holy Grail to fans not so much because of the tangible benefits, but out of frustration that something that seems so obvious, and so overwhelmingly desired, is not being delivered. The fans are looking for a good answer to the question, “Why not?”

For starters, we know that the answer has nothing to do with the supposed concerns of college presidents about the academic impact that additional games may have on the players. It’s hard to believe that the college presidents actually care that much more for the student-athetes at Oklahoma and Florida than they do for those at Montana or Appalachian State or any other school that participates in playoffs in the FCS, Div. II, or Div. III. 

Second, we know that the answer has something to do with money. We know that because the answer always has something to do with money. But the particular frustration is that in this case, that seems counterintuitive. On the surface, one would certainly think there is a truckload of money to be made from a college playoff. And as fans, we’re also consumers. We understand the basic laws of supply and demand. When it comes to sports, we’re accustomed to television supplying a heaping helping (and then some) of whatever we demand. So the ”money” answer rings a little hollow, or at least confusing. What gives? 

I’ve never been invited to any back room NCAA deliberations on this topic, but it appears that one of the primary concerns of those who oppose a playoff is that whatever gains would be made in a college post-season would be offset by damage done to the regular season. For instance, the Oklahoma-Texas Tech game a couple of weeks ago has a very different tone if both of those teams know they are still likely heading to the playoffs, win or lose. Under this theory, the current system gives us a “mini-playoff” game each week, as some team or another must win to keep hope alive. The concern is that a playoff would diminish the importance and, more importantly, revenue generation of these regular season games. The model is basketball, where many casual fans often don’t even begin to watch games or follow the sport until late February. Playoff opponents fear this would  happen in football as well.

Maybe. But I don’t think so. To begin with, I wouldn’t throw any stones at the basketball model. The NCAA tournament is arguably the second most valuable franchise event in sports, after the Super Bowl. So even if there were some decreased interest in the regular season, the postseason gains would likely still be worth it.

More importantly, I don’t think there would be decreased regular season interest. Football by its nature, and particularly college football with the tribal devotions of each school’s fans, is always a big event. Long after teams fall out of the championship hunt, the large program games still pull big numbers and generate excitement, just for the thrill of winning the game (and rubbing it in the face of your buddy who went to Loser U.). Notre Dame can be 4-7 and it’s still a humongous deal to most fans when they play anybody. 

Baseball faced this a few years ago, when it decided to expand the playoffs by adding a wild card and two extra playoff spots in each league. To some extent, this watered down the pennant races and took a little something from the latter part of the regular season. However, that pennant race excitement was in turn transferred into a more compelling postseason, which has been very successful. Also, with more opportunities available, more teams found themselves staying in pennant races longer and later. This actually increased interest in more cities, and resulted in more theoretically “meaningful” games.”

This analogy translates well to college football. While a regular season game between two of the top 5 teams might lose some luster with an expanded playoff, there would be five other games each week which would grow in importance for having “playoff implications.” Because any game that has “playoff implications” by definition has “championship implications.”

In the later part of the season, if I am a fan of Georgia or Ohio State I am MUCH more interested in trying to squeeze into the playoffs than I am in, say, making it to the Fiesta Bowl. If I’m Utah or Boise State or Ball State, I know I have to stay perfect to get my shot–not a shot at a BCS bowl, but a shot at winning it all. So every game is of extreme significance. If I’m Penn State or Texas Tech, I know I better not slip up to an Illinois or a Baylor and blow my chances–not my chances at a nice bowl, but chances of grabbing the ring.

(2) How would it work?

The trick to balancing post-season excitement and a meaningful regular season is to determine the right number of teams to include in a playoff. Let’s face one fact: it’s false to say that college football doesn’t have a playoff system. It does have a playoff system, and has had one ever since the BCS was put into place.

The difference is that, instead of a field of 64, college football has a field of 2. The BCS exists to select two teams to invite to what amounts to a one-game tournament. As with the basketball selection process, it’s not always clear who should make the field and who should not. But with only a 2 team field to work with, the selection process is virtually impossible and the injustices significantly greater. Imagine trying to sit down at the end of last basketball season and determine which two out of Memphis, Kansas, North Carolina, UCLA or Texas should be given the privilege of playing in the final?

So…two is the wrong number. What is the right number? There are many who lobby for 16 teams, but that’s too inclusive, and runs the risk of including truly undeserving teams (see: Georgia). There are those who say that anything more than four teams would do that, but yet here we have a season where seven big conference schools have one or fewer losses and a legitimate claim to inclusion, plus three undefeated schools from smaller conferences. Four is not enough.

I believe the correct number is 12. Here’s why: That is large enough to include all 6 BCS conference champs (it is important that the conference champs receive an automatic entry, to maintain the meaning of those chases), and still leave enough room for deserving at-large teams, without being too inclusive. There is a second benefit to a 12-team pool, as well: it allows for the top four teams to be rewarded with a first round bye. This keeps the regular season games meaningful even for those who are likely in, and recognizes that the upper tier teams deserve some special treatment.

If Obama makes me the Football Czar (a job for which I am lobbying hard, BTW), I’d make these additional rules: While the BCS rankings could be used as a tool, in the way the RPI is used in basketball, the 6 at large teams should be chosen by a selection committee. First and second round games would be played at the home site of the higher seeded team. The semi final and final games would be played at neutral sites to be rotated (and selected) as in basketball. The teams earning automatic entry by winning their conference would not be entitled to the top 6 seeds; they would simply be entitled to inclusion in the field of 12. The other bowls continue to exist for the non-playoff bowl eligible teams. This works well for the Independence Bowl and the Chick Fil-A Bowl and such;  there are delicate issues involving the Rose, Sugar, etc., which would have to be addressed.

Here is how this approach would play out this season. Assume for these purposes that Oklahoma  will beat Missouri, that Boston College will beat Virginia Tech, and that Florida will beat Alabama (in fact, assume that under this approach conference title games would likely die out, but that’s another discussion for another posting):

Automatic bids: Florida, Cincinnati, Boston College, Penn State, Oklahoma and USC.

At-large: Texas, Alabama and Texas Tech are no brainers. Utah and Boise State are in as well–one of the purposes of this system is to give those teams a chance. That leaves one spot open. Although some other teams may argue, it would likely come down to Ohio State versus Ball State for that last spot, throwing open a philosophical question about the big conference school with two losses against the undefeated MAC team.

Ohio State is ahead of Ball State in the current BCS by two positions. But they lost twice. Would you really pick them? Can you justify leaving out Ball State when you let in Utah and Boise State? My guess is the money concerns would put Ohio State in, but just for grins let’s go with Ball State for our hypothetical playoff. (This goes to show that there will always be an argument…but isn’t it better to have this argument, instead of a subjective selection of Oklahoma over Texas, or vice versa, into a field of two?).

Note that Oregon State, by beating Oregon, could have claimed an automatic bid, making USC an at-large, and therefore kicking out both Ohio State and Ball State. There’s an example of a regular season game that becomes MORE meaningful under a playoff. Did you really care that much whether Oregon State went to the Rose Bowl or not? Me, neither. But what if that game had been for a shot at the national title, and could have simultaneously ended hopes in two other places? More interesting, don’t you think?

Using the current BCS standings to seed (and flipping Florida and Alabama, on the assumption that Florida will win), we get the following matchups for our playoff:

#12 Boston College at #5 USC; winner plays the following week at #4 Alabama
#11 Cincinnati at # 6 Utah; winner plays the following week at #3 Texas
#10 Ball State at #7 Texas Tech; winner plays the following week at #2 Oklahoma
#9 Boise State at #8 Penn State; winner plays the following week at #1 Florida

There are some legitimate concerns and logistic issues which keep an expanded playoff field from being a no-brainer. But a glance at the above gives a taste of the possibilities that could occur with the right system. Like the Holy Grail, it is a quest worth continued pursuit.