The Savants are owning the playoffs - up a combined $150 going into the Super Bowl.  The likelihood of that continuing is pretty low given Dick and Rand have taken opposite sides of the game.  As a special treat, all of our season-long Guest Prognosticators were invited to make a pick for the game.  Plus 130 for the Playoffs, not bad, but just wait until next season.

Special Note #1:  Cassidy remains hopeful that the Cowboys will actually be the team that is introduced to take the field against the Steelers on Sunday.  Of course, that presumes that they are a team versus a bunch of over-hyped, over-paid, under-performing individuals who happen to show up (not necessarily on time) at the same place on Sundays.

Special Note #2:  There are 2 principles alive during the playoffs:  1 - Believe in Big Ben, and 2 - Never, Ever Bet Against Kurt Warner in the Playoffs.  Which Principle will win out - we’ll see on Sunday.

Super Bowl Sunday
Dick          +50 + 50 = +100
Tom           +70 - 20 = +50
Rand          +30 -50 = -20
Guest Pickers (combined)   -70 +50 = -20

This week’s picks
Dick: $50 on Arizona +7, Dick stays on the Arizona bandwagon.  Is it because he doesn’t want the Steelers to pass the Cows in Super Bowl wins?  He says that it not it.  It must be that he knows:  Never, Ever Bet against Kurt Warner in the Playoffs. +++ Cassidy falls the simple rule - Never, Ever Bet against Kurt Warner in the Playoffs - and it pays off with a Win for the Playoffs on top of his Regular Season Win.  Congratulations on taking the other Savants down this season.

Tom: $10 on Pitts/AZ Under 46.5.  What to do when your guiding principles collide - PUNT.  Since I believe in Big Ben, and I know better than betting against Kurt Warner, here are a series of $10 picks. XXX What happened in that 4th Quarter.
          $10 on Arizona +.5 in the 1st Qtr.  I am hoping for a slow 0-0 start in the first quarter. XXX Ooops, hard to out score Pitts when you brilliantly elect to kick off and then run a total of 3 plays in the quarter. 
           $10 on Pittsburgh -3 in the 2nd Qtr.  Why does this quarter have the biggest spread?  Since I don’t know, it is obvious that you need to be making a pick on this quarter. +++ Lucky - of course not, who didn’t know that the Steelers would run back a 100-yard interception with no time remaining on the clock.
           $10 on Pittsburgh Under 27.  If Pittsburgh’s defense can control the Cardinals, they’ll sit on the ball (intentional or not is an unimportant detail). Push - they didn’t want to score this many points, unfortunately Arizona remembered that Larry Fitzgerald was on their team in the 2nd half.
           $10 on 4th Qtr Under 13.  No thought process involved on this one other than I think the game is an under.  XXX missed that by a bunch - 23 points in the quarter after 27 in the first 3 quarters.

Rand: $50 on Pittsburgh -7.  Rand jumps on the Steeler Bandwagon as they beat the Titan-nemisis Ravens to get to the big game.  Is Arizona the luckiest team to make it to the Super Bowl - let’s review their road to the big game: Atlanta one year removed from a horrible season sporting a rookie QB and Coach, Carolina with the single worst quarterback performance in playoff history, and Philly with Donavan electing not to make any plays in the first half of the game?  Surely Big Ben’s bunch can trounce these guys, right? XXXX Believe in Big Ben remains in effect for the game score, but Never, Ever Bet Against Kurt Warner in the Playoffs carries the day against the line.  

Our Super Bowl Guest Prognosticators are listed below - headlining the group is none other than John Beckert.  John was plus 50 in his week as the GP.  John is a noted Steeler fan who again gets rewarded with a team that is enjoyable to follow, and that does things the right way.  What fun is that?  How about a following a team that is a walking talking soap opera - so much so that they’ll actually have 2 reality TV shows airing this year.  Will John surprise us by picking against the Steelers?  Of course not, but he does shy away from the end of game total.

John:  $50 on Pittsburgh -.5 in the 3rd Qtr.  Is John basing the pick on the Steelers overwhelming 3rd quarter domination this season, or is he avoiding the end of game total thinking it could be a close game.  Stay tuned - perhaps he’ll disclose the thought process after the game.  ++++ Super Pick.  John gets the pick right by going with the 3rd quarter, but not the end of the game score.  John nails both his regular season and playoff pick as a Guest Picker.  He may be a little too good at this for us.

Our Season-Long Guest Prognosticators:

The Arizona Bandwagon:  Interestingly enough, not a single GP picked Pittsburgh -7 in this game.  Apparently they don’t know what Rand knows - or vice versa.  Dave Largent, Joe Grant, Mark Nordman, Mike Kinman and Bill Henslee all are taking the Cardinals +7.  Nordman goes so far as to predict the outright Arizona win.  Dave, Joe and Mark all put the load on the Cardinals with Bill allocating 20 of his war chest to the pick.  Add to this list the picks of Monty Becton, Jeff Porter,and Steve Ranneywhose picks below indicate they favor the Cardinals, you have a vast majority of the GPs on the Cardinal Bandwagon.  Bill Henslee’s remaining picks fall into this category, so they are listed here: $20 on Pitts Under 27 and $10 on AZ Over 20.  Mike Kinman adds that he picks the Cardinals and all the overs on the Prop bets. ++++ The group of Dave Largent, Joe Grant, Mark Nordman, Mike Kinman and Bill Henslee nail all of their bets on Arizona.

The Cassidy Factor:  We did have an unusual prediction, Larry Cassidy predicted a push.  With the sort of Cassidy precision we know and love, who needs to take one side or the other when you know it is going to be a push.  Larry’s Final Score Prediction:  Pitts 24 - AZ 17.  I suppose that means he’s taking the under. Hmmmm, right on the outcome, but the push on the final score doesn’t happen.

The Rational Approach (aka closest to my approach): Steve Robinson puts $30 on the 2nd Qtr going Over 13, and $20 on Pittsburgh -.5 in the 3rd quarter (joining John Beckert with this one). +++ Steve nails both picks here.  Just showing off I suppose.

The folks who want to show off:  We have 5 GP’s elect to make a prediction on all the various prop bets.  There picks are listed below with initials for each picker:  Scott Holtzman (SH), Monty Becton (MB), Steve Ranney (SR), Lynn Conto (LC) and Jeff Porter (JP).

Prop Bets:             SH         MB          SR        LC        JP
1st Half/Pitts -4      C         C           C           P          C  - Pitts covers, only SR gets this one - 1 for 5.
1st Half/O/U 23.5    U          U           U           U          U - Last play TD takes half Over - 0 for 5.
2nd Half/Pitts -3     P           C           C           P          C - Pitts covers - SH and SR correct. 2 for 5.
2nd Half/O/U 23.5   O          U           O           O          O - 4th Quarter flurry of scoring. 4 for 5.
1st QTR/ Pitts -.5    C         P            C           C          C  - Pitts covers.  1 for 5
1st QTR/O/U 10       U          O           U           O          O - Under.  2 for 5
2nd QTR/Pitts -3      P          C            C          P           C - Pitts covers. 2 for 5
2nd QTR/O/U 13.5    O          O           U          U           O - Over. 3 for 5
3rd QTR/Pitts -.5      P          C            C          P           C - Pitts covers. 2 for 5
3rd QTR/O/U 10        O          O           O          O           O - Under. Ouch. 0 for 5
4th QTR/Pitts -.5      P          C            C          C           C - Cardinals cover. Wow - 4 for 5
4th QTR/O/U 13        O          O           O          O           O - Over. Double Wow - 5 for 5
Pitts O/U 27             O          U           U          O           U  Under. 3 for 5
AZ O/U 20               U          O           O          U           O Over. 3 for 5.

Scott Holtzman leads the group with a 7-7 finish on the prop bets.  Monty Becton, Stever Ranney, Lynn Conto and Jeff Porter all notch 6-8 records.  The back and forth nature of the game caused the Cardinals supporters to end up under .500 even though their team covered for the game.

Thank you for your support and participation during the season.  What’s next for the Sports Savants.  Stay tuned.

Note: The Sports Savants do not gamble with real money and do not endorse, recommend or promote doing so. The dollar figures above are in “pretend” money, as a way of measuring our success in the game. Not only is gambling illegal in many jurisdictions, it is also pretty dumb. In the end, the house always wins. That’s why the house has gold plated ceilings, dancing girls, magic shows and enormous fountains out front.

After a cold weekend, the Savants are ready to get back on track this weekend.  Who would have guessed that the great Kurt Warner is a home game win away from the Super Bowl.  Not me.

Playoffs - Week 3 Final
Dick          0 + 50 = +50
Tom          +20 +50 = +70
Rand         +20 +10 = +30
Guest Pickers (combined)    -40 -30 = -70

This week’s picks
Dick: $50 on Arizona +4, Dick stays with his west leanings (last week San Diego, this week Arizona) and bets the load on Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals.  Wow!  Is Dick predicting that Arizona will be in a Super Bowl this century before his beloved Cows - well, at least he sees them covering the spread. +++++ Dick nails this pick following the edict - never, ever bet against Kurt Warner in the Playoffs.

Tom: $50 on Pittsburgh, I believe in Big Ben, I believe in Big Ben, I believe in Big Ben.  Here’s also hoping that Rand’s Titans have the Ravens limping after last week’s slugfest. +++++ Tough game as expected, but you gotta believe in Big Ben.

Rand: $30 on Philly/Arizona over 47, Rand stays with the over/under bets while watching Dick and Tom crash and burn trying to guess the winners of these crazy playoff games.  He’s counting on Kurt and Donovan to light it up while the defenses play more to their season-long form. +++++ Easy money with the Arizona offense and the Arizona Defense playing.  Arizona probably could have scored 50 if they would have just thrown to Fitzgerald the whole game.
          $20 on Pittsburgh/Baltimore under 34, is this a repeat of last week where Baltimore can play with no intention of scoring as they know that 13 points should win any National Football League game?  And, will the Steelers elect to turn the ball over in the red zone like the Titans last week? XXX too much to expect Baltimore to hold their opponents under 10 points again.   

This Week’s Guest Prognosticators is Scott Holtzman, a famous financial consultant for golf course companies.  Scott has a plan to get the GP’s back into the black this weekend to make a run at the playoff title.  Can he beat the Savants (you’d think that wouldn’t be that hard looking at our records, but apparently it is)?

Scott:  $20 on Philly/Arizona under 47, opposite Rand on  this one, Scott believes their defenses are for real.  Or, at least one QB will fall apart and have his team not participate in the scoring.  XXX this pick looked alright in the second quarter, but not so good in fourth quarter.
            $10 on Philly -4, Scott goes opposite Dick on this pick (not necessarily a bad strategy).  Apparently Scott has not read my prior admonishment: never, ever bet against Kurt Warner iin the playoffs.  XXX Scott repeat after me, Never, Ever, Bet against Kurt Warner in the Playoffs.
            $10 on Baltimore +6, Scott goes opposite Tom on this pick - perhaps there is a trend developing here.  Too many points for a low scoring game like this - unless the Ravens run out of gas, please. In his third straight pick against the Savants, Scott goes 0-3.  Second Note to Scott:  Believe in Big Ben.
            $10 on Pittsburgh/Baltimore over 34, Scott completes the quadfecta (?) going against the Savants on all 4 of his picks.  He accomplished the feat without knowing what we picked.  Of course, it is probably a great strategy to go opposite our picks, but to do it without knowing our picks shows signs that another savant may be present.  +++ Scott gains some semblance of credibility here with a win on the over.  Overall, 1-3 on picks and against the Savants.

Note: The Sports Savants do not gamble with real money and do not endorse, recommend or promote doing so. The dollar figures above are in “pretend” money, as a way of measuring our success in the game. Not only is gambling illegal in many jurisdictions, it is also pretty dumb. In the end, the house always wins. That’s why the house has gold plated ceilings, dancing girls, magic shows and enormous fountains out front.

The Big Boys all play this weekend.  Can the Savants continue their opening weekend hot streak? No!

Playoffs - Week 2 Final
Dick          +50 -50 = 0
Tom          +50 - 30 = 20
Rand         +10 +10 = 20
Guest Pickers (combined)    -30 - 10 = -40

This week’s picks
Dick: $50 on San Diego +6, not buying into the hype on the one-dimensional Steelers.  Will Dick soon learn to believe in Big Ben? XXX Big Ben and the Steelers drill Norv’s team.  Will Dick become a Big Ben believer next week?

Tom: $20 on Carolina -10, I have already forgotten that you never ever bet against Kurt Warner.  Of course, these are the Cardinals playing a team with a winning record on the road. XXX it seems that if I can write - Never Ever bet against Kurt Warner - maybe I could remember it also, nah.
           $10 on Philly/NY Giants under 40, expecting no offense for another beautiful day (not) in the Meadowlands. +++ saves an otherwise ugly week.
           $10 on Tennessee -3, a believer in Rand’s Titans against their nemisis.  Prediction:  winner of this game will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. XXX someone should have told me the Titans planned to commit turnovers and penalties.  They did serve up the win to the team of destiny - or is that Philly - or it that Arizona?
           $10 on New York Football Giants -4, predicting that the team that lost to Washington 3 weeks ago will not go any further in the playoffs. XXX another bad day for the home team - I bet on 3 home teams this weekend - my record 0-3.

Rand: $20 on Baltimore/Tennessee under 34.5, as both teams play it close to the vest, the first team to double figures will win. +++ this became an easy pick after the Titans elected to turn the ball over each time they neared the goal line.
          $20 on Pittsburgh/San Diego under 38, a cold day in Pittsburgh should keep the Charger offense in check - but will the Steeler D score enough to go over? XXX Pittsburgh almost hit the over themselves.  An impressive scoring day for the Steelers. 
          $10 on Pittsburgh -6, Rand gets in Dick’s grill on this one.  Will the real Savant please step forward. +++ No doubt on this one - Rand picks the avalanche winner.

This Week’s Guest Prognosticators is Rudy Anderson.  Rudy is the Managing Director of CNL Lifestyle Company.  The Savants aren’t exactly sure what that means, but we think it means he gets real money to invest.  Rudy is loyal to his New York teams - the real New York teams - Yankees and Giants.   Rudy has officially offered Dick the opportunity to jump on the Giant Bandwagon now that he has crawled out of the wreckage of the Cowboys’ Bandwagon.

Rudy:  $20 on New York Giants -4, the only decision here was whether to put the entire $50 on this one. XXX Rudy’s team makes like the gang that couldn’t shoot straight - or at least the quarterback who can’t throw straight.
            $10 on Carolina -10, will Arizona prove both Rudy and Tom wrong? XXX Yes.  See above note on Kurt Warner, then memorize it.
            $10 on Baltimore +3, Rudy on the team of destiny, or the team that learns that a rookie QB does not get you to the Super Bowl. +++ Nails this pick - with help from Tennessee.
            $10 on Pittsburgh -6, another believer in Big Ben. +++ Rewarded for believing in Big Ben.

Note: The Sports Savants do not gamble with real money and do not endorse, recommend or promote doing so. The dollar figures above are in “pretend” money, as a way of measuring our success in the game. Not only is gambling illegal in many jurisdictions, it is also pretty dumb. In the end, the house always wins. That’s why the house has gold plated ceilings, dancing girls, magic shows and enormous fountains out front.

The Savants are Back!  After a season-long battle with mediocrity - by the way, mediocrity may have won - the Savants are ready to roll into the Playoffs.  Without the distraction of the soap opera known as the Dallas Cowboys, real football kicks off this weekend.  The real world writers are talking about the road warriors winning all 4 games this weekend - will the Savants fall for the hype?

Playoffs - Wild Card Weekend Results
Dick         0 + 50 = +50
Tom          0 + 50 = +50
Rand         0  + 10 = +10
Guest Pickers (combined)   0 - 30 = -30

This week’s picks
Dick: $50 on Philly -3, is Dick overrating last week’s slaughter of the Cows?  We’ll see how Donovan’s show plays on the road. +++ Dick nails this one - Tavaris and Co. against Jim Johnson’s defense - no contest.

Tom: $50 on Baltimore -3.5, surely Big Bill’s Fins storybook season will come to end this weekend, right? +++ Another easy pick as Miami’s Offense was not going to beat Baltimore’s Defense.

Rand: $30 on Baltimore/Miami under 37.5, both Tom and Rand are on board that Miami should have big problems scoring this weekend. +++ It was close, but Miami refrained from throwing in a meaningless score to blow the under.
          $20 on Indy -1, underrated after 9 straight victories, or will the Manning-nemesis Chargers prevail? XXX San Diego has Indy’s number - well, at least with a little luck on OT coin flip.

This Week’s Guest Prognosticators are Larry and Jason Cassidy.  For the second straight week we tap family resources in the holiday spirit.  Larry is Dick’s brother - Jason gets double billing as Larry’s son and Dick’s nephew.  In his non-football savant times, Larry is Master Chair of Vistage International, the World’s Leading Chief Executive Organization.  Both are certain that they can’t be any worse at this than their famed Savant kin.  Can these left coasters continue the Guest Picker’s hot streak?

Larry and Jason:  $10 on Atlanta -1, Jason is on-board with the road team hype.  Will Kurt Warner show that he hasn’t used up all of his 9 lives? XXX never ever bet against Kurt Warner in the playoffs.
            $10 on Indy -1, another Jason pick as he is not buying into the nearby Chargers rise from the dead - will inside information be valuable? XXX another non-believer in the Chargers goes down.
            $10 on Baltimore -3.5, Jason is sticking with the road team in this one.  Can the rookie QB’s come through? +++ on board with the easy money pick of the weekend.
            $20 on Minnesota +3, Larry exercises fatherly control on this one, going with his Vikings over the Eagles.  Notice that the brothers go toe-to-toe on this one, may the best brother win. XXX the battle of the bro’s goes to Dick.  Of course an overmatched Tavaris and Co. had a lot to do with this one.

Note: The Sports Savants do not gamble with real money and do not endorse, recommend or promote doing so. The dollar figures above are in “pretend” money, as a way of measuring our success in the game. Not only is gambling illegal in many jurisdictions, it is also pretty dumb. In the end, the house always wins. That’s why the house has gold plated ceilings, dancing girls, magic shows and enormous fountains out front.